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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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West Indies tour of Bangladesh · 2025/26 · Men
23 Oct 2025 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 54%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 47%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassancaught · Justin Greaves · Roston Chase 6 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Justin Greaves · b Roston Chase | 80 | 72 | 6 | 6 | 111.11 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Ackeem Auguste · Akeal Hosein7 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Ackeem Auguste · b Akeal Hosein | 91 | 86 | 7 | 4 | 105.81 |
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Alick Athanaze2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Alick Athanaze | 28 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 63.64 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught and bowled · Alick Athanaze0 fours · 3 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 44 |
| 55 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 80.00 |
| Mahidul Islam Ankonbowled · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akeal Hosein | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Khary Pierre · Akeal Hosein0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khary Pierre · b Akeal Hosein | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Nasum Ahmedcaught · Ackeem Auguste · Akeal Hosein0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ackeem Auguste · b Akeal Hosein | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Nurul Hasannot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 16* | 8 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Ackeem Auguste · Gudakesh Motie1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ackeem Auguste · b Gudakesh Motie | 17 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 4.10 | 1 | 0 |
 Roston Chase1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 53 | 1 | 6.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Khary Pierre0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Greaves0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 8.71 | 3 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 6.63 | 1 | 0 |
| Alick Athanaze0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 |
1-176 (Saif Hassan, 25.2) · 2-181 (Soumya Sarkar, 28.1) · 3-231 (Tawhid Hridoy, 39.5) · 4-252 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 43.3) · 5-259 (Mahidul Islam Ankon, 45.1) · 6-260 (Rishad Hossain, 45.4) · 7-261 (Nasum Ahmed, 46.0) · 8-296 (Mehedi Hasan, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 43/0 |
| 8 | 17 | 60/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 65/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 74/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 79/0 |
| 12 | 10 | 89/0 |
| 13 | 1 | 90/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 94/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 95/0 |
| 16 | 14 | 109/0 |
| 17 | 9 | 118/0 |
| 18 | 5 | 123/0 |
| 19 | 3 | 126/0 |
| 20 | 13 | 139/0 |
| 21 | 6 | 145/0 |
| 22 | 11 | 156/0 |
| 23 | 4 | 160/0 |
| 24 | 3 | 163/0 |
| 25 | 13 | 176/0 |
| 26 | 1 | 177/1 |
| 27 | 0 | 177/1 |
| 28 | 4 | 181/1 |
| 29 | 3 | 184/2 |
| 30 | 10 | 194/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 198/2 |
| 32 | 3 | 201/2 |
| 33 | 2 | 203/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 207/2 |
| 35 | 3 | 210/2 |
| 36 | 1 | 211/2 |
| 37 | 8 | 219/2 |
| 38 | 3 | 222/2 |
| 39 | 4 | 226/2 |
| 40 | 5 | 231/3 |
| 41 | 7 | 238/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 247/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 252/3 |
| 44 | 2 | 254/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 259/4 |
| 46 | 2 | 261/7 |
| 47 | 11 | 272/7 |
| 48 | 3 | 275/7 |
| 49 | 15 | 290/7 |
| 50 | 6 | 296/8 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nasum Ahmed: Cricfrenzy Tube · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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