BulgariaversusSerbia

27 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bulgaria won by 7 runs

Bulgaria20.0 overs138/4 Serbia20.0 overs131/7 Vassil Levski National Sports Academy, Sofia ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Serbia more likely to win

19%Bulgaria81%Serbia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Serbia rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,359 vs 1,183 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Serbia won 6 and Bulgaria won 0
Bulgaria are playing at home in Bulgaria

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bulgaria started on 17%; Bulgaria batted first.

Bulgaria’s chance of winning (%) · Serbia is the rest

Bulgaria's chances ranged from 7% to 91% during the match (Serbia: 9% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.5: B Shotorova to D Demic, D Demic out. Bulgaria up from 29% to 43%.
2nd inns 19.2: D Ruynekova to N Nojic, N Nojic out. Bulgaria up from 33% to 52%.
2nd inns 19.3: D Ruynekova to E Prokic, E Prokic out. Bulgaria up from 52% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bulgaria138/4 Serbia131/7

Innings 1

Bulgaria

138/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bulgaria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
B Shotorovacaught and bowled · N Nojic 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b N Nojic	3	10	0	0	30.00
V Nikolovacaught · K Ristic · M Perisic 9 fours · 0 sixes	caught · K Ristic · b M Perisic	60	47	9	0	127.66
A Stoilovabowled · N Nojic 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b N Nojic	0	1	0	0	0.00
D Ruynekovanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes	not out	23*	52	1	0	44.23
S Galabovabowled · D Demic 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b D Demic	10	12	1	0	83.33
K Marinkovanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
N Nojic1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	24	2	6.00	6	0
M Stevanovic0 maidens · 5 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	0	27	0	6.75	5	2
E Prokic0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	36	0	9.00	4	0
S Matijevic0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	9	0
M Perisic0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	1	3.00	2	0
D Demic0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	15	1	7.50	6	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	8	12/0
3	0	12/2
4	7	19/2
5	5	24/2
6	3	27/2
7	16	43/2
8	9	52/2
9	2	54/2
10	9	63/2
11	7	70/2
12	7	77/2
13	6	83/2
14	13	96/2
15	7	103/2
16	4	107/3
17	6	113/3
18	11	124/3
19	4	128/3
20	10	138/4

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.