ThailandversusZimbabwe

20 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 1 runs

Thailand20.0 overs115/7 Zimbabwe20.0 overs114/6 Mulpani Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

78%Thailand22%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,739 vs 1,513 on our results rating)
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 5 and Thailand won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 77%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 12% to 81% during the match (Zimbabwe: 19% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: O Kamchomphu to J Nkomo, 2 runs to J Nkomo. Zimbabwe up from 31% to 49%.
2nd inns 18.6: T Putthawong to N Gwanzura, four by N Gwanzura. Zimbabwe up from 31% to 49%.
2nd inns 19.6: P Maya to N Gwanzura, N Gwanzura out. Thailand up from 35% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand115/7 Zimbabwe114/6

Innings 1

Thailand

115/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aphisara Suwanchonrathicaught · Audrey Mazvishaya · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Audrey Mazvishaya · b Josephine Nkomo	0	2	0	0	0.00
Natthakan Chantamcaught · Modester Mupachikwa · A Zimunu 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b A Zimunu	26	22	2	2	118.18
Nannapat Koncharoenkairun out · Josephine Nkomo, Audrey Mazvishaya · Audrey Mazvishaya 6 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Josephine Nkomo, Audrey Mazvishaya	54	52	6	0	103.85
Naruemol Chaiwaicaught · Audrey Mazvishaya · A Zimunu1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Josephine Nkomo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	1	7.50	1
Christabel Chatonzwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	0
Nyasha Gwanzura0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	2
A Zimunu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	2
Audrey Mazvishaya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	0
L Mabhero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	0	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	2	7/1
3	10	17/1
4	3	20/1
5	8	28/1
6	9	37/1
7	3	40/1
8	9	49/2
9	7	56/2
10	5	61/2
11	4	65/2
12	1	66/2
13	5	71/2
14	12	83/2
15	5	88/2
16	1	89/3
17	12	101/3
18	4	105/6
19	3	108/6
20	7	115/7

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.