Royal Challengers BengaluruversusMumbai Indians

7 Apr 2025 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 12 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs221/5 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs209/9 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 52%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 41% to 99% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 1% to 60%).

Biggest swings

0.2: TA Boult to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Mumbai Indians up from 44% to 60%.
2nd inns 17.4: B Kumar to Tilak Varma, Tilak Varma out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 63% to 78%.
2nd inns 18.1: JR Hazlewood to HH Pandya, HH Pandya out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 63% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru221/5 Mumbai Indians209/9

Innings 1