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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
19 Feb 2026 · T20
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 58%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 2% to 82% during the match (Zimbabwe: 18% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Tony Munyonga · Graeme Cremer 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony Munyonga · b Graeme Cremer | 62 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 151.22 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Graeme Cremer · Blessing Muzarabani 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Graeme Cremer · b Blessing Muzarabani | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 157.14 |
| Kusal Mendisstumped · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Ryan Burl 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Ryan Burl | 14 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Graeme Cremer · Brad Evans 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Graeme Cremer · b Brad Evans | 44 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 176.00 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught and bowled · Graeme Cremer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Graeme Cremer | 7 | 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 140.00 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Blessing Muzarabani | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagenot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 8 | 3 | 0 | 187.50 |
|---|
| Dushan Hemanthacaught · Ryan Burl · Brad Evans 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Burl · b Brad Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 11.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Graeme Cremer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Burl0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-54 (Kushal Janith Perera, 5.0) · 2-100 (Kusal Mendis, 12.1) · 3-108 (Pathum Nissanka, 13.4) · 4-123 (Kamindu Mendis, 15.2) · 5-142 (Dasun Shanaka, 17.1) · 6-164 (Pavan Rathnayake, 18.5) · 7-164 (Dushan Hemantha, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 46/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 54/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 61/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 66/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 70/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 74/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 86/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 93/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 100/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 105/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 111/3 |
| 15 | 11 | 122/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 127/4 |
| 17 | 15 | 142/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 148/5 |
| 19 | 16 | 164/7 |
| 20 | 14 | 178/7 |
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
