IndiaversusEngland

28 Jun 2025 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 97 runs

India20.0 overs210/5 England14.5 overs113/10 Trent Bridge ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

22%India78%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,769 vs 1,619 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 20%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

India's chances ranged from 21% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 79%).

Biggest swings

8.3: EL Arlott to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. England up from 44% to 52%.
2nd inns 0.6: AB Kaur to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. India up from 80% to 86%.
2nd inns 5.6: DB Sharma to TT Beaumont, TT Beaumont out. India up from 87% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India210/5 England113/10

Innings 1

India

210/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shafali Vermacaught · Sophie Ecclestone · Emily Arlott 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sophie Ecclestone · b Emily Arlott	20	22	3	0	90.91
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · Sophie Ecclestone 15 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · b Sophie Ecclestone	112	62	15	3	180.65
Harleen Deolcaught · Emily Arlott · Lauren Bell 7 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Emily Arlott · b Lauren Bell	43	23	7	0	186.96
Richa Ghoshcaught · Sophia Dunkley · Lauren Bell 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sophia Dunkley

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	3	6.75	3	0
Emily Arlott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	1	0
Lauren Filer0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	2	1
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	41	0	13.67	0	0
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	43	1	14.33	0	0
Alice Capsey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	1	0

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