BulgariaversusGuernsey

21 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Guernsey won by 8 wickets

Bulgaria19.5 overs97/10 Guernsey9.4 overs99/2 Guernsey Rovers Athletic Club Ground, Port Soif ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Guernsey more likely to win

20%Bulgaria80%Guernsey

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Guernsey rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,486 vs 1,322 on our results rating)
Guernsey are playing at home in Guernsey
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Guernsey won 1 and Bulgaria won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bulgaria started on 18%; Bulgaria batted first.

Bulgaria’s chance of winning (%) · Guernsey is the rest

Bulgaria's chances ranged from 0% to 19% during the match (Guernsey: 81% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: D Mullen to D Nikolov, D Nikolov out. Guernsey up from 82% to 88%.
4.6: C Forshaw to Firas Hussain, Firas Hussain out. Guernsey up from 86% to 90%.
6.3: M Dale-Bradley to M Gogev, Zeerak Chughtai out. Guernsey up from 89% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bulgaria97/10 Guernsey99/2

Innings 1

Bulgaria

97/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bulgaria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zeerak Chughtairun out · Isaac Damarell · M Dale-Bradley 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Isaac Damarell	12	20	1	0	60.00
D Nikolovstumped · Isaac Damarell · D Mullen 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Isaac Damarell · b D Mullen	0	3	0	0	0.00
Firas Hussaincaught · LT Bichard · C Forshaw 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LT Bichard · b C Forshaw	7	13	0	0	53.85
M Gogevcaught · Ben Fitchet · M Dale-Bradley 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ben Fitchet · b M Dale-Bradley	27	24	2	1	112.50
Isa Zaroocaught · M Dale-Bradley · A Martel 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Dale-Bradley · b A Martel	1	3	0	0	33.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
D Mullen1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	1	11	2	2.87	0	0
LT Bichard0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	14	0	3.50	2	1
M Dale-Bradley0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	3	4.00	1	0
C Forshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	2	6.00	0	0
Matthew Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	0	0
A Martel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	1	6.33	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	6	7/1
3	6	13/1
4	5	18/1
5	3	21/2
6	6	27/2
7	5	32/3
8	2	34/4
9	8	42/5
10	4	46/5
11	1	47/5
12	9	56/5
13	7	63/5
14	4	67/7
15	3	70/7
16	1	71/8
17	4	75/8
18	8	83/8
19	8	91/8
20	6	97/10

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