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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Men
14 Feb 2025 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 46%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Mark Adair 20 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Mark Adair | 169 | 163 | 20 | 3 | 103.68 |
| Ben Currancaught · Matthew Humphreys · Andrew McBrine 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Humphreys · b Andrew McBrine | 28 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 63.64 |
 Craig Ervinecaught · Mark Adair · Graham Hume3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Mark Adair · b Graham Hume | 66 | 61 | 3 | 4 | 108.20 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Paul Stirling · Joshua Little1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Joshua Little | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Mark Adair |
| 8 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 61.54 |
 Johnathan Campbellnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Tadiwanashe Marumaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 5.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Joshua Little0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 75 | 1 | 8.33 | 5 | 0 |
| Graham Hume2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 57 | 1 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 5.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-95 (Ben Curran, 18.4) · 2-231 (Craig Ervine, 41.0) · 3-242 (Sikandar Raza, 43.1) · 4-278 (Wesley Madhevere, 47.1) · 5-295 (Brian Bennett, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 15 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 36/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 37/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 52/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 60/0 |
| 11 | 9 | 69/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 69/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 73/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 80/0 |
| 15 | 3 | 83/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 86/0 |
| 17 | 2 | 88/0 |
| 18 | 2 | 90/0 |
| 19 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 98/1 |
| 21 | 6 | 104/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 108/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 116/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 120/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 122/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 126/1 |
| 27 | 7 | 133/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 136/1 |
| 29 | 4 | 140/1 |
| 30 | 9 | 149/1 |
| 31 | 3 | 152/1 |
| 32 | 2 | 154/1 |
| 33 | 6 | 160/1 |
| 34 | 17 | 177/1 |
| 35 | 6 | 183/1 |
| 36 | 6 | 189/1 |
| 37 | 9 | 198/1 |
| 38 | 4 | 202/1 |
| 39 | 13 | 215/1 |
| 40 | 5 | 220/1 |
| 41 | 11 | 231/2 |
| 42 | 4 | 235/2 |
| 43 | 7 | 242/2 |
| 44 | 5 | 247/3 |
| 45 | 10 | 257/3 |
| 46 | 12 | 269/3 |
| 47 | 9 | 278/3 |
| 48 | 7 | 285/4 |
| 49 | 6 | 291/4 |
| 50 | 8 | 299/5 |
Johnathan Campbell: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
