GibraltarversusJersey

15 Dec 2024 · T20

Europa Sports Complex, Gibraltar · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Jersey won by 8 wickets

Gibraltar20.0 overs60/7 Jersey8.3 overs61/2 Europa Sports Complex, Gibraltar ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Gibraltar more likely to win

57%Gibraltar43%Jersey

Why

Gibraltar are playing at home in Gibraltar
On results in T20 internationals so far, Gibraltar rate stronger than Jersey (1,356 vs 1,344 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gibraltar started on 56%; Gibraltar batted first.

Gibraltar’s chance of winning (%) · Jersey is the rest

Gibraltar's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (Jersey: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: CM Greechan to N Caruana, N Caruana out. Jersey up from 45% to 56%.
2.2: CM Greechan to N Laguea, N Laguea out. Jersey up from 56% to 65%.
19.6: G Wetherall to YS Blagg, 0 runs to YS Blagg. Jersey up from 93% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gibraltar60/7 Jersey61/2

Innings 1

Gibraltar

60/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Gibraltar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
N Caruanabowled · Chloe Greechan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Chloe Greechan	0	3	0	0	0.00
N Laguealbw · Chloe Greechan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Chloe Greechan	1	4	0	0	25.00
AIV Benatarrun out · Analise Merritt, Mia Maguire · Georgia Mallet 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Analise Merritt, Mia Maguire	11	29	0	0	37.93
CT McNallyrun out · Mia Maguire, O Bastin · Erin Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Mia Maguire, O Bastin	18	51	0	0	35.29
EAS Ferrarybowled · Grace Wetherall 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Grace Wetherall	5	9	0	0	55.56

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Chloe Greechan2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	2	2	0.50	0	0
Grace Wetherall0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	2	2.25	1	0
Erin Duffy0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	0	9	1	3.00	2	2
Florence Tanguy0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	0	12	0	4.00	0	2
Georgia Mallet0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	0	3.00	1	0
Analise Merritt0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	3	0
O Bastin0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	8	0	4.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	4	4/1
3	1	5/2
4	1	6/2
5	1	7/2
6	3	10/2
7	2	12/2
8	7	19/2
9	5	24/2
10	1	25/2
11	6	31/2
12	1	32/2
13	4	36/3
14	5	41/3
15	3	44/3
16	2	46/4
17	1	47/4
18	2	49/6
19	8	57/6
20	3	60/7

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