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Asia Pacific Cricket Champions Trophy · 2025 · Men
19 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 71%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Samoa: 0% to 29%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeeshan Alirun out · BF Mailata, CK Jasmat · BF Mailata 8 fours · 4 sixes | run out · BF Mailata, CK Jasmat | 75 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 156.25 |
| Anshuman Rathbowled · S Sola 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Sola | 32 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 139.13 |
| Nizakat Khannot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 38* | 31 | 2 | 1 | 122.58 |
| Babar Hayatbowled · KAB Hynam-Nyberg 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b KAB Hynam-Nyberg | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Martin Coetzeecaught · D Finau · BF Mailata 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Finau · b BF Mailata | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Aizaz Khanlbw · S Sola0 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b S Sola |
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Nasrulla Rananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BF Mailata0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| CK Jasmat0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| KAB Hynam-Nyberg0 maidens · 3 wides · 3 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 11.00 | 3 | 3 |
| SM Nash0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Mead0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S Sola0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-105 (Anshuman Rath, 10.0) · 2-129 (Zeeshan Ali, 13.3) · 3-140 (Babar Hayat, 14.5) · 4-158 (Martin Coetzee, 17.1) · 5-171 (Aizaz Khan, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 29/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 14 | 50/0 |
| 6 | 15 | 65/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 74/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 87/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 99/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 105/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 108/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 117/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 126/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 131/2 |
| 15 | 12 | 143/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 152/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 158/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 162/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 168/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 172/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.