**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

BangladeshversusSri Lanka

20 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs111/8 Sri Lanka17.1 overs114/3 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

12%Bangladesh88%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,637 vs 1,390 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 7 and Bangladesh won 3
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 11%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 13% during the match (Sri Lanka: 87% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: KDU Prabodhani to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Sri Lanka up from 87% to 91%.
1.3: SIP Fernando to Ishma Tanjim, Ishma Tanjim out. Sri Lanka up from 94% to 97%.
2nd inns 5.5: Nahida Akter to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. Bangladesh up from 6% to 9%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh111/8 Sri Lanka114/3

Innings 1

Bangladesh

111/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Akterbowled · Udeshika Prabodhani 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Udeshika Prabodhani	6	3	1	0	200.00
Ishma Tanjimcaught · Sugandika Kumari · Inoshi Priyadharshani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sugandika Kumari · b Inoshi Priyadharshani	0	3	0	0	0.00
Rubya Haidercaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Udeshika Prabodhani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Udeshika Prabodhani	0	1	0	0	0.00
Nigar Sultananot out 6 fours · 0 sixes	not out	48*	59	6	0	81.36
Ritu Monicaught and bowled · Inoshi Priyadharshani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Udeshika Prabodhani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	2	5.00	0
Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	2	4.25	0
Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	1	4.75	2
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	28	1	9.33	5
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/2
2	2	8/3
3	0	8/3
4	1	9/3
5	6	15/3
6	3	18/4
7	6	24/4
8	9	33/4
9	3	36/4
10	10	46/4
11	2	48/5
12	5	53/5
13	7	60/5
14	4	64/5
15	3	67/6
16	7	74/6
17	8	82/6
18	14	96/7
19	4	100/8
20	11	111/8

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