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Ireland Women tour of South Africa · 2025/26 · Women
16 Dec 2025 · ODI
St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 81%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Rebecca Stokell · Aimee Maguire19 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rebecca Stokell · b Aimee Maguire | 124 | 111 | 19 | 0 | 111.71 |
| Tazmin Britslbw · Jane Maguire 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jane Maguire | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Lara Goodallbowled · Aimee Maguire 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aimee Maguire | 12 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Suné Luuscaught · Aimee Maguire · Arlene Kelly 13 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aimee Maguire · b Arlene Kelly | 114 | 113 | 13 | 1 | 100.88 |
 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Leah Paul · b Jane Maguire |
| 88 |
| 47 |
| 13 |
| 3 |
| 187.23 |
| Miané Smitcaught · Orla Prendergast · Jane Maguire 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Jane Maguire | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Karabo Mesonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 18 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast1 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 86 | 0 | 8.60 | 3 | 1 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 75 | 3 | 7.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 5.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 2 | 6.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 8.17 | 0 | 1 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 11 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 11 | 1 |
1-17 (Tazmin Brits, 5.2) · 2-59 (Lara Goodall, 11.0) · 3-238 (Laura Wolvaardt, 36.5) · 4-355 (Suné Luus, 48.2) · 5-366 (Miané Smit, 49.2) · 6-375 (Dane van Niekerk, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 3/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 12 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 38/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 47/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 59/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 60/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 68/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 74/2 |
| 15 | 9 | 83/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 87/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 96/2 |
| 18 | 16 | 112/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 115/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 117/2 |
| 21 | 13 | 130/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 132/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 137/2 |
| 24 | 10 | 147/2 |
| 25 | 12 | 159/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 165/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 170/2 |
| 28 | 5 | 175/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 182/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 186/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 194/2 |
| 32 | 12 | 206/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 214/2 |
| 34 | 7 | 221/2 |
| 35 | 8 | 229/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 235/2 |
| 37 | 4 | 239/3 |
| 38 | 9 | 248/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 252/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 256/3 |
| 41 | 16 | 272/3 |
| 42 | 10 | 282/3 |
| 43 | 10 | 292/3 |
| 44 | 7 | 299/3 |
| 45 | 7 | 306/3 |
| 46 | 11 | 317/3 |
| 47 | 18 | 335/3 |
| 48 | 16 | 351/3 |
| 49 | 13 | 364/4 |
| 50 | 11 | 375/6 |
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dane van Niekerk: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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