PakistanversusAustralia

29 Jan 2026 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 22 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs168/8 Australia20.0 overs146/8 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

35%Pakistan65%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Pakistan (1,760 vs 1,674 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 7 and Pakistan won 3
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 35%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 81%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.3: Abrar Ahmed to C Connolly, C Connolly out. Pakistan up from 33% to 53%.
2nd inns 10.1: Mohammad Nawaz to C Green, MJ Owen out. Pakistan up from 50% to 77%.
2nd inns 12.2: Mohammad Nawaz to C Green, C Green out. Pakistan up from 65% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan168/8 Australia146/8

Innings 1

Pakistan

168/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught and bowled · Xavier Bartlett 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Xavier Bartlett	0	1	0	0	0.00
Saim Ayubcaught · Jack Edwards · Adam Zampa 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Jack Edwards · b Adam Zampa	40	22	3	2	181.82
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Xavier Bartlett · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Adam Zampa	39	27	1	4	144.44
Mohammad Babar Azamlbw · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Adam Zampa	24	20	1	1	120.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	1	0
Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	0	7.33	2	0
Matthew Short0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	3	0
Jack Edwards0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	0	0
Mahli Beardman0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	1	1
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	4	6.00	4	0
Cameron Green0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	8	16/1
3	10	26/1
4	12	38/1
5	5	43/1
6	13	56/1
7	13	69/1
8	5	74/2
9	11	85/2
10	7	92/3
11	9	101/3
12	9	110/3
13	5	115/3
14	9	124/4
15	13	137/4
16	5	142/5
17	4	146/5
18	3	149/6
19	10	159/6
20	9	168/8

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