St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusSt Lucia Kings

12 Sept 2024 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Lucia Kings won by 5 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs173/5 St Lucia Kings16.3 overs176/5 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 37%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.2: S Descarte to E Lewis, E Lewis out. St Lucia Kings up from 47% to 56%.
9.1: RL Chase to KR Mayers, KR Mayers out. St Lucia Kings up from 51% to 59%.
15.2: S Descarte to RR Rossouw, six by RR Rossouw. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 44% to 50%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots173/5 St Lucia Kings176/5

Innings 1