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Pearl of Africa T20I Series · 2025 · Men
22 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 94%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 12%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrideep Mangelacaught · AE Isesele · Mohameed Taiwo 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AE Isesele · b Mohameed Taiwo | 51 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 121.43 |
| Robinson Obuyacaught · Isaac Danladi · P Useni 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Danladi · b P Useni | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Raghav Dhawanbowled · AA Jimoh 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b AA Jimoh | 22 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 81.48 |
| CN Kakurunot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 21* | 22 | 1 | 0 | 95.45 |
| Dinesh Nakranicaught · Sylvester Okpe · Mohameed Taiwo 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sylvester Okpe · b Mohameed Taiwo | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| bowled · b Peter Aho |
| 13 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 130.00 |
| Juma Miyagicaught · Mohameed Taiwo · Peter Aho 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohameed Taiwo · b Peter Aho | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Useni0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Peter Aho0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Mohameed Taiwo0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 1 |
| AA Jimoh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Robinson Obuya, 2.2) · 2-84 (Raghav Dhawan, 12.1) · 3-91 (Shrideep Mangela, 13.1) · 4-105 (Dinesh Nakrani, 15.3) · 5-141 (AR Ramjani, 19.2) · 6-147 (Juma Miyagi, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 27/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 44/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 59/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 66/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 71/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 79/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 84/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 91/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 97/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 104/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 108/4 |
| 17 | 11 | 119/4 |
| 18 | 10 | 129/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 140/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 147/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.