New ZealandversusAustralia

19 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Australia won by 5 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs143/7 Australia18.4 overs145/5 Ray Mitchell Oval, Harrup Park, Mackay ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

14%New Zealand86%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,680 vs 1,495 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and New Zealand won 2
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 14%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (Australia: 64% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.1: MM Penfold to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. New Zealand up from 15% to 23%.
2nd inns 6.1: LMM Tahuhu to EA Perry, EA Perry out. New Zealand up from 22% to 35%.
2nd inns 11.1: MM Penfold to TM McGrath, TM McGrath out. New Zealand up from 11% to 19%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand143/7 Australia145/5

Innings 1

New Zealand

143/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suzie Batescaught · Alyssa Healy · Annabel Sutherland 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alyssa Healy · b Annabel Sutherland	33	27	5	0	122.22
Georgia Plimmercaught · Sophie Molineux · Tayla Vlaeminck 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sophie Molineux · b Tayla Vlaeminck	11	11	1	0	100.00
Amelia Kerrcaught · Annabel Sutherland · Sophie Molineux 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Sophie Molineux	7	5	1	0	140.00
Brooke Hallidaylbw · Georgia Wareham 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Georgia Wareham	5	9	0	0	55.56

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Megan Schutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	0	0
Tayla Vlaeminck0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	0	0
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	0	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	1	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	1	7.33	0	0
Heather Graham0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	13	1	6.50	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	7	13/0
3	4	17/0
4	8	25/1
5	2	27/2
6	8	35/2
7	9	44/2
8	4	48/3
9	10	58/3
10	11	69/3
11	3	72/4
12	13	85/4
13	11	96/5
14	7	103/5
15	6	109/5
16	5	114/5
17	6	120/5
18	5	125/6
19	10	135/6
20	8	143/7

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