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India Women tour of Australia · 2025/26 · Women
1 Mar 2026 · ODI
Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 82%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alyssa Healybowled · Sneh Rana27 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Sneh Rana | 158 | 98 | 27 | 2 | 161.22 |
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Shree Charani · Kashvee Gautam0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shree Charani · b Kashvee Gautam | 14 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 70.00 |
 Georgia Vollcaught · Harleen Deol · Sneh Rana7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harleen Deol · b Sneh Rana | 62 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 119.23 |
 Beth Mooneynot out10 fours · 1 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 18%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 106* |
| 84 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 126.19 |
 Annabel Sutherlandcaught · Sneh Rana · Deepti Sharma3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sneh Rana · b Deepti Sharma | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 115.00 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnerbowled · Renuka Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Renuka Singh | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathcaught · Kashvee Gautam · Shree Charani0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kashvee Gautam · b Shree Charani | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Georgia Warehamcaught · Smriti Mandhana · Shree Charani0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Shree Charani | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Nicola Careynot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 34* | 15 | 4 | 1 | 226.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 64 | 1 | 6.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Kashvee Gautam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 83 | 1 | 8.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 106 | 2 | 10.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Sneh Rana1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 66 | 2 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 90 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-32 (Phoebe Litchfield, 6.0) · 2-136 (Georgia Voll, 21.1) · 3-281 (Alyssa Healy, 36.3) · 4-328 (Annabel Sutherland, 42.0) · 5-345 (Ashleigh Gardner, 44.1) · 6-353 (Tahlia McGrath, 45.2) · 7-355 (Georgia Wareham, 45.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 7 | 13 | 45/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 55/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 62/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 69/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 77/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 80/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 86/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 88/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 96/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 103/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 107/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 115/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 122/1 |
| 20 | 11 | 133/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 136/1 |
| 22 | 0 | 136/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 140/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 145/2 |
| 25 | 8 | 153/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 158/2 |
| 27 | 11 | 169/2 |
| 28 | 15 | 184/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 188/2 |
| 30 | 10 | 198/2 |
| 31 | 11 | 209/2 |
| 32 | 23 | 232/2 |
| 33 | 15 | 247/2 |
| 34 | 9 | 256/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 261/2 |
| 36 | 15 | 276/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 282/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 289/3 |
| 39 | 8 | 297/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 305/3 |
| 41 | 12 | 317/3 |
| 42 | 11 | 328/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 337/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 345/4 |
| 45 | 8 | 353/5 |
| 46 | 3 | 356/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 365/7 |
| 48 | 10 | 375/7 |
| 49 | 22 | 397/7 |
| 50 | 12 | 409/7 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lucy Hamilton: Servite et contribuere · CC0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Nicola Carey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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