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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
27 Oct 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 73%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Sri Lanka: 21% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Dilshan Madushanka1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Dilshan Madushanka | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 38.46 |
| Maaz Sadaqatlbw · Asitha Fernando 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 72.73 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamlbw · Eshan Malinga5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Eshan Malinga | 29 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 87.88 |
| Saad Baigcaught · Janith Liyanage · Dilshan Madushanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Dilshan Madushanka | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| caught · Kusal Mendis · b Sahan Arachchige |
| 9 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 64.29 |
| Hassan Nawazcaught · Sahan Arachchige · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sahan Arachchige · b Dunith Wellalage | 17 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 54.84 |
|---|
 Shadab Khancaught · Kusal Mendis · Sahan Arachchige0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Sahan Arachchige | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Arafat Minhascaught · Kusal Mendis · Dilshan Madushanka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dilshan Madushanka | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridicaught · Dunith Wellalage · Dilshan Madushanka0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Dilshan Madushanka | 15 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 115.38 |
|---|
 Haris Raufcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dilshan Madushanka0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dilshan Madushanka | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Dilshan Madushanka1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 1 | 34 | 5 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sahan Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (Fakhar Zaman, 3.2) · 2-23 (Maaz Sadaqat, 6.2) · 3-46 (Saad Baig, 9.2) · 4-61 (Salman Ali Agha, 13.0) · 5-61 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 13.1) · 6-64 (Shadab Khan, 14.4) · 7-91 (Arafat Minhas, 21.4) · 8-91 (Hassan Nawaz, 22.3) · 9-92 (Haris Rauf, 23.1) · 10-110 (Shaheen Afridi, 25.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 35/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 47/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 58/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 61/4 |
| 14 | 1 | 62/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 64/6 |
| 16 | 1 | 65/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 69/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 72/6 |
| 19 | 8 | 80/6 |
| 20 | 3 | 83/6 |
| 21 | 3 | 86/6 |
| 22 | 5 | 91/7 |
| 23 | 1 | 92/8 |
| 24 | 2 | 94/9 |
| 25 | 10 | 104/9 |
| 26 | 6 | 110/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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