ThailandversusTanzania

25 Nov 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 51 runs

Thailand20.0 overs110/6 Tanzania19.0 overs59/10 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

69%Thailand31%Tanzania

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Tanzania (1,664 vs 1,569 on our results rating)
Thailand are playing at home in Thailand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 67%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Tanzania is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Tanzania: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.1: T Putthawong to FO Kibasu, S Mtae out. Thailand up from 60% to 70%.
2nd inns 3.5: T Putthawong to FO Kibasu, FO Kibasu out. Thailand up from 72% to 81%.
2nd inns 5.1: T Putthawong to NJ Pius, NJ Pius out. Thailand up from 76% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand110/6 Tanzania59/10

Innings 1

Thailand

110/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathamcaught · NJ Pius · S Kizito 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · NJ Pius · b S Kizito	13	13	2	0	100.00
Chanida Sutthiruangcaught · SD Hussein · S Kizito 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · SD Hussein · b S Kizito	14	20	2	0	70.00
Nannapat Koncharoenkairun out · NJ Pius, SD Hussein · SF Jerome 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · NJ Pius, SD Hussein	28	40	1	0	70.00
Natthakan Chantam

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
NN Saidi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	2	0
S Kizito0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0	1
JG Kimaro0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	0	6.50	1	0
MH Ushanga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	1	0
SF Jerome0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	0	4.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/0
3	7	18/0
4	3	21/1
5	5	26/1
6	3	29/1
7	7	36/1
8	5	41/2
9	4	45/2
10	5	50/2
11	1	51/2
12	6	57/2
13	2	59/2
14	5	64/2
15	4	68/2
16	7	75/2
17	11	86/3
18	5	91/4
19	10	101/4
20	9	110/6

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