BotswanaversusLesotho

22 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Botswana won by 113 runs

Botswana20.0 overs143/9 Lesotho10.3 overs30/10 Botswana Cricket Association Oval 1, Gaborone ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Botswana more likely to win

71%Botswana29%Lesotho

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Botswana won 2 and Lesotho won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Botswana rate stronger than Lesotho (1,332 vs 1,275 on our results rating)
Botswana are playing at home in Botswana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Botswana started on 71%; Botswana batted first.

Botswana’s chance of winning (%) · Lesotho is the rest

Botswana's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (Lesotho: 0% to 42%).

Biggest swings

2.1: MA Nyabela to L Mophakedi, L Mophakedi out. Lesotho up from 31% to 38%.
19.6: MA Nyabela to A Mokgotlhe, four by A Mokgotlhe. Botswana up from 77% to 83%.
2nd inns 4.4: T Shadrack to M Mokoatsela, M Mokoatsela out. Botswana up from 85% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Botswana143/9 Lesotho30/10

Innings 1

Botswana

143/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Botswana batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
T Shadrackbowled · MA Tsemane 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b MA Tsemane	28	52	2	0	53.85
O Kgeresibowled · NM Mokhachane 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NM Mokhachane	0	1	0	0	0.00
L Mophakedibowled · MA Nyabela 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b MA Nyabela	1	5	0	0	20.00
Pako Mapotsanebowled · B Phelenyane 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b B Phelenyane	30	36	3	0	83.33
G Matomelbw · NM Mokhachane 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b NM Mokhachane	0	3	0	0	0.00
W Moutswibowled · MA Nyabela1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
MA Nyabela1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	21	3	5.25	5	0
NM Mokhachane0 maidens · 8 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	25	3	6.25	8	1
MA Tsemane0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	4	0
B Phelenyane0 maidens · 10 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	0	27	1	9.00	10	2
R Limema0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	27	0	9.00	3	1
MM Mabathoana0 maidens · 1 wides · 4 no-balls	2.0	0	15	0	7.50	1	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	4	12/1
3	0	12/2
4	9	21/2
5	5	26/2
6	9	35/2
7	3	38/2
8	12	50/2
9	7	57/2
10	4	61/2
11	10	71/2
12	11	82/2
13	6	88/2
14	9	97/3
15	7	104/4
16	8	112/5
17	1	113/7
18	10	123/7
19	7	130/8
20	13	143/9

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