CroatiaversusSpain

6 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Spain won by 9 wickets

Croatia18.2 overs55/10 Spain4.4 overs58/1 La Manga Club Top Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Spain more likely to win

5%Croatia95%Spain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Spain rate stronger than Croatia (1,609 vs 1,270 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Spain won 6 and Croatia won 0
Spain are playing at home in Spain

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Croatia started on 4%; Croatia batted first.

Croatia’s chance of winning (%) · Spain is the rest

Croatia's chances ranged from 0% to 5% during the match (Spain: 96% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Mohammad Kamran to S Houghton, S Houghton out. Spain up from 96% to 97%.
2.5: Mohammad Kamran to Jaikumar Thakur, Jaikumar Thakur out. Spain up from 97% to 98%.
8.3: LA Burns to Saghar Manzoor, Saghar Manzoor out. Spain up from 97% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Croatia55/10 Spain58/1

Innings 1

Croatia

55/1018.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Croatia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Houghtoncaught · SJ Hughes-Pinan · Mohammad Kamran 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · SJ Hughes-Pinan · b Mohammad Kamran	0	3	0	0	0.00
A Beresford-Peirsecaught · LA Burns · Mohammad Atif 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · LA Burns · b Mohammad Atif	35	45	0	1	77.78
Jaikumar Thakurbowled · Mohammad Kamran 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mohammad Kamran	2	8	0	0	25.00
Saghar Manzoorcaught · D Doyle-Calle · LA Burns 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Doyle-Calle · b LA Burns	8	19	1	0	42.11
Abhishek Awasthibowled · Yasir Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Yasir Ali	1	14	0	0	7.14

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mohammad Kamran1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	4	2	1.33	0
Yasir Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	3	2.50	1
Mohammad Atif0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	0	9	3	2.70	0
LA Burns0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	1
SJ Hughes-Pinan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	0	2.75	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	2	3/1
3	3	6/2
4	2	8/2
5	0	8/2
6	4	12/2
7	8	20/2
8	5	25/2
9	4	29/3
10	1	30/3
11	1	31/3
12	2	33/4
13	8	41/5
14	3	44/6
15	2	46/6
16	2	48/6
17	3	51/6
18	4	55/8
19	0	55/10

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