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Bulgaria Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2025 · Men
10 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Gibraltar more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bulgaria started on 39%; Bulgaria batted first.
Bulgaria's chances ranged from 0% to 93% during the match (Gibraltar: 7% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H Lakovcaught · L Bruce · A Reyes 3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · L Bruce · b A Reyes | 56 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 140.00 |
| Isa Zaroocaught · JA Fitzgerald · L Bruce 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · JA Fitzgerald · b L Bruce | 14 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 140.00 |
| M Gogevbowled · A Reyes 7 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b A Reyes | 62 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 193.75 |
| Manan Bashircaught · Joe Wilson · K Mirpuri 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Joe Wilson · b K Mirpuri | 48 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 282.35 |
| Zeerak Chughtaicaught · K Mirpuri · K Nestor 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · K Mirpuri · b K Nestor | 13 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 162.50 |
| Jakob Gul |
| caught · PA Raikes · b K Nestor |
| 8 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 160.00 |
| Danyal Rajanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| P Mishranot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Bruce0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| K Nestor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| K Mirpuri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 14.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Wilson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
| M Raikes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 20.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Reyes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| RJ Hatchman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Isa Zaroo, 2.4) · 2-107 (M Gogev, 11.2) · 3-166 (Manan Bashir, 15.0) · 4-194 (H Lakov, 17.1) · 5-202 (Zeerak Chughtai, 18.2) · 6-209 (Jakob Gul, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 30/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 39/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 46/1 |
| 8 | 11 | 57/1 |
| 9 | 12 | 69/1 |
| 10 | 21 | 90/1 |
| 11 | 16 | 106/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 109/2 |
| 13 | 24 | 133/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 142/2 |
| 15 | 24 | 166/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 175/3 |
| 17 | 19 | 194/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 201/4 |
| 19 | 8 | 209/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 217/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.