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Women's T20 Pentangular Series (in Japan) · 2025 · Women
6 Jun 2025 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 53%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Kato-Staffordstumped · Zi Mei · Mengting Liu 4 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Zi Mei · b Mengting Liu | 36 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 87.80 |
| Kurumi Otacaught · Xu Qian · Mengting Liu 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Xu Qian · b Mengting Liu | 18 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 56.25 |
| Mai Yanagidarun out · Jiaping Li, Zi Mei · Cai Yuzhi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jiaping Li, Zi Mei | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 47.06 |
| Seika Sumirun out · Cai Yuzhi, Yan Zuying · Cai Yuzhi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Cai Yuzhi, Yan Zuying | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
| H Iwasakibowled · Wang Huiying 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wang Huiying | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 69.23 |
| caught · Mengting Liu · b Cai Yuzhi |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| A Chandelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| A Fujikawacaught and bowled · Cai Yuzhi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Cai Yuzhi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ma Ruike0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Xu Qian0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mengting Liu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Wang Huiying0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Cai Yuzhi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-58 (Kurumi Ota, 11.1) · 2-65 (A Kato-Stafford, 14.0) · 3-71 (Mai Yanagida, 15.2) · 4-88 (H Iwasaki, 18.4) · 5-89 (H Goto, 19.1) · 6-90 (Seika Sumi, 19.3) · 7-94 (A Fujikawa, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 33/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 43/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 52/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 58/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 58/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 60/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 70/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 78/3 |
| 18 | 8 | 86/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 89/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 94/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.