Washington FreedomversusSeattle Orcas

19 Jun 2026 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Seattle Orcas won by 5 wickets

Washington Freedom20.0 overs216/10 Seattle Orcas17.4 overs219/5 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 60%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · Seattle Orcas is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 0% to 96% during the match (Seattle Orcas: 4% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.2: SN Netravalkar to Shayan Jahangir, Shayan Jahangir out. Washington Freedom up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 15.5: LH Ferguson to MD Shanaka, six by MD Shanaka. Seattle Orcas up from 76% to 86%.
2nd inns 15.6: LH Ferguson to MD Shanaka, six by MD Shanaka. Seattle Orcas up from 86% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom216/10 Seattle Orcas219/5

Innings 1