IndiaversusNetherlands

18 Feb 2026 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 17 runs

India20.0 overs193/6 Netherlands20.0 overs176/7 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

93%India7%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Netherlands (1,880 vs 1,521 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 1 and Netherlands won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 93%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

India's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 21%).

Biggest swings

0.3: A Dutt to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. Netherlands up from 8% to 14%.
2nd inns 5.4: CV Varun to MP O'Dowd, MP O'Dowd out. India up from 84% to 90%.
2nd inns 12.1: CV Varun to CN Ackermann, CN Ackermann out. India up from 81% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India193/6 Netherlands176/7

Innings 1

India

193/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abhishek Sharmabowled · Aryan Dutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Aryan Dutt	0	3	0	0	0.00
Ishan Kishanbowled · Aryan Dutt 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Aryan Dutt	18	7	2	1	257.14
Tilak Varmacaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Logan van Beek 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Logan van Beek	31	27	3	1	114.81
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · T van der Gugten · Kyle Klein 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · T van der Gugten · b Kyle Klein	34	28

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	0
Logan van Beek0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	56	3	14.00	2
Colin Ackermann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	36	0	12.00	1
Kyle Klein0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	2
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	0	7.00	2
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	15	18/1
3	5	23/1
4	12	35/1
5	9	44/2
6	7	51/2
7	5	56/2
8	4	60/2
9	9	69/3
10	5	74/3
11	2	76/3
12	13	89/3
13	19	108/3
14	5	113/4
15	5	118/4
16	15	133/4
17	20	153/4
18	6	159/4
19	21	180/4
20	13	193/6

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