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Photo: Younisjunejo
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Pakistan Tri-Nation Series · 2024/25 · Men
10 Feb 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 50%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Michael Bracewell · Matt Henry 11 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Matt Henry | 150 | 148 | 11 | 5 | 101.35 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Tom Latham · William O’Rourke3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b William O’Rourke | 20 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 86.96 |
| Jason Smithrun out · Tom Latham, Mitchell Santner · Michael Bracewell 1 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Tom Latham, Mitchell Santner | 41 | 51 | 1 | 2 | 80.39 |
| Kyle Verreynnebowled · Michael Bracewell 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Michael Bracewell | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 78% during the match (New Zealand: 23% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Daryl Mitchell · b William O’Rourke |
| 64 |
| 60 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 106.67 |
| Eathan Boschnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Senuran Muthusamycaught · Michael Bracewell · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Matt Henry | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Mihlali Mpongwananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 59 | 2 | 5.90 | 1 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 2 | 7.20 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Sears0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 6.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
1-37 (Temba Bavuma, 7.3) · 2-130 (Jason Smith, 25.0) · 3-132 (Kyle Verreynne, 26.2) · 4-263 (Matthew Breetzke, 45.2) · 5-300 (Wiaan Mulder, 48.5) · 6-303 (Senuran Muthusamy, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 15 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 38/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 39/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 46/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 50/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 61/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 16 | 12 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 8 | 82/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 87/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 91/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 96/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 101/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 104/1 |
| 23 | 9 | 113/1 |
| 24 | 10 | 123/1 |
| 25 | 7 | 130/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 132/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 135/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 136/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 139/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 145/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 147/3 |
| 32 | 5 | 152/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 156/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 160/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 163/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 169/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 174/3 |
| 38 | 11 | 185/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 191/3 |
| 40 | 5 | 196/3 |
| 41 | 16 | 212/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 221/3 |
| 43 | 14 | 235/3 |
| 44 | 7 | 242/3 |
| 45 | 20 | 262/3 |
| 46 | 7 | 269/4 |
| 47 | 10 | 279/4 |
| 48 | 14 | 293/4 |
| 49 | 8 | 301/5 |
| 50 | 3 | 304/6 |
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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