NorthamptonshireversusWarwickshire

12 Jul 2026 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Warwickshire won by 5 wickets

Northamptonshire20.0 overs153/10 Warwickshire18.2 overs154/5 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 58%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Warwickshire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 0% to 91% during the match (Warwickshire: 9% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: GLS Scrimshaw to BJ Webster, BJ Webster out. Northamptonshire up from 26% to 42%.
2nd inns 5.2: LA Procter to DR Mousley, DR Mousley out. Northamptonshire up from 43% to 70%.
2nd inns 6.6: GLS Scrimshaw to Hamza Shaikh, Hamza Shaikh out. Northamptonshire up from 64% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire153/10 Warwickshire154/5

Innings 1