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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Region Final · 2025 · Men
5 Jul 2025 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Guernsey started on 33%; Guernsey batted first.
Guernsey's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Italy: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Fitchetlbw · Harry Manenti 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Harry Manenti | 11 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 73.33 |
| A Martelrun out · J Mosca · Grant Stewart 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · J Mosca | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| M Dale-Bradleycaught · Joe Burns · Harry Manenti 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Burns · b Harry Manenti | 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Matthew Stokescaught · Joe Burns · CJPF Kalugamage 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Burns · b CJPF Kalugamage | 13 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 76.47 |
| Tom Nightingalecaught and bowled · Ben Manenti 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ben Manenti | 35 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 134.62 |
| bowled · b Jaspreet Singh |
| 9 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 150.00 |
| Oliver Nightingalecaught · Marcus Campopiano · Harry Manenti 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marcus Campopiano · b Harry Manenti | 17 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 85.00 |
|---|
| LT Bichardbowled · Ben Manenti 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ben Manenti | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Anthony Stokeslbw · Grant Stewart 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Grant Stewart | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| C Forshawnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Harry Johnsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 1 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Grant Stewart0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Draca0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Harry Manenti1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Manenti0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaspreet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (A Martel, 1.0) · 2-35 (M Dale-Bradley, 5.2) · 3-36 (Ben Fitchet, 5.4) · 4-60 (Matthew Stokes, 10.3) · 5-76 (Isaac Damarell, 12.1) · 6-100 (Tom Nightingale, 15.2) · 7-100 (LT Bichard, 15.5) · 8-101 (Anthony Stokes, 16.4) · 9-121 (Oliver Nightingale, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 13 | 15/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 29/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 36/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 40/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 42/3 |
| 9 | 11 | 53/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 66/4 |
| 12 | 10 | 76/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 83/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 90/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 96/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 100/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 102/8 |
| 18 | 8 | 110/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 115/8 |
| 20 | 7 | 122/9 |
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
