New ZealandversusIndia

22 Oct 2026 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 4 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs225/4 India19.4 overs230/6 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

25%New Zealand75%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,761 vs 1,603 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and New Zealand won 2 (1 tied)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 23%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 6% to 77% during the match (India: 23% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.3: LH Ferguson to AR Patel, AR Patel out. New Zealand up from 41% to 60%.
2nd inns 16.2: MJ Santner to Naman Dhir, six by Naman Dhir. India up from 39% to 59%.
2nd inns 17.6: NG Smith to Naman Dhir, four by Naman Dhir. India up from 76% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand225/4 India230/6

Innings 1

New Zealand

225/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Seifertcaught · Sanju Samson · Mayank Yadav 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sanju Samson · b Mayank Yadav	24	17	3	1	141.18
Finn Allencaught · Tilak Varma · Axar Patel 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Tilak Varma · b Axar Patel	45	24	5	2	187.50
Daryl Mitchellcaught · Bhuvneshwar Kumar · Arshdeep Singh 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bhuvneshwar Kumar · b Arshdeep Singh	28	19	2	1	147.37
Glenn Phillipsnot out 8 fours · 3 sixes	not out	82*	40	8	3	205.00
Bevon Jacobsrun out · Arshdeep Singh · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 3 sixes	run out · Arshdeep Singh	31	16	0	3	193.75

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Bhuvneshwar Kumar0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	49	0	12.25	2	2
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	1	11.25	2	0
Mayank Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	1	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	51	1	12.75	0	0
Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	0	10.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	8	12/0
3	17	29/0
4	17	46/0
5	3	49/1
6	16	65/1
7	7	72/1
8	9	81/2
9	5	86/2
10	12	98/2
11	12	110/2
12	12	122/2
13	11	133/3
14	14	147/3
15	11	158/3
16	14	172/3
17	18	190/3
18	9	199/4
19	12	211/4
20	14	225/4

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