ThailandversusIndonesia

2 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 6 wickets

Thailand18.1 overs90/10 Indonesia14.2 overs91/4 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

77%Thailand23%Indonesia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Indonesia (1,444 vs 1,262 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 2 and Indonesia won 0
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 76%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Indonesia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 77% during the match (Indonesia: 23% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: DJ Hawoe to C Chatphaisan, C Chatphaisan out. Indonesia up from 24% to 33%.
2.6: DJ Hawoe to N Nuntarach, N Nuntarach out. Indonesia up from 27% to 36%.
18.1: RM Koda to N Senamontree, N Senamontree out. Indonesia up from 74% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand90/10 Indonesia91/4

Innings 1

Thailand

90/1018.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Akshaykumar Yadavcaught · Ketut Artawan · Kadek Gamantika 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ketut Artawan · b Kadek Gamantika	36	40	3	0	90.00
Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · Ahmad Ramdoni · Danilson Hawoe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmad Ramdoni · b Danilson Hawoe	0	1	0	0	0.00
N Nuntarachcaught · Kadek Gamantika · Danilson Hawoe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kadek Gamantika · b Danilson Hawoe	3	8	0	0	37.50
Y Saranonnakkuncaught · Ketut Artawan · IW Budiarta 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ketut Artawan · b IW Budiarta	11	22	0	0	50.00
Austin Lazaruscaught · Gede Priandana · Kadek Gamantika 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gede Priandana · b Kadek Gamantika	13

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	3	4.25	4
RM Koda0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	15	1	4.74	1
F Banunaek0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	2	4.67	1
IW Budiarta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	1	3.67	0
Kadek Gamantika0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	3	5.00	3
Ketut Artawan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	4	12/1
3	5	17/2
4	8	25/2
5	2	27/2
6	6	33/2
7	5	38/2
8	6	44/2
9	3	47/2
10	8	55/2
11	3	58/3
12	5	63/3
13	10	73/3
14	3	76/5
15	2	78/6
16	7	85/7
17	3	88/7
18	2	90/9
19	0	90/10

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