BhutanversusQatar

20 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Qatar won by 6 wickets

Bhutan20.0 overs111/10 Qatar16.4 overs112/4 University of Doha for Science and Technology ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Qatar more likely to win

25%Bhutan75%Qatar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Qatar rate stronger than Bhutan (1,513 vs 1,365 on our results rating)
Qatar are playing at home in Qatar

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 23%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Qatar: 63% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: Muhammad Jabir to Tenjin Rabgey, six by Tenjin Rabgey. Bhutan up from 29% to 34%.
2.6: Muhammad Jabir to S Pradhan, S Pradhan out. Qatar up from 63% to 71%.
3.5: Amir Farooq to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Qatar up from 71% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan111/10 Qatar112/4

Innings 1

Bhutan

111/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Pradhancaught · Imal Liyanage · Muhammad Jabir 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imal Liyanage · b Muhammad Jabir	13	11	2	0	118.18
Tenjin Rabgeybowled · Amir Farooq 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Amir Farooq	16	12	2	1	133.33
J Singyecaught · Muhammad Jabir · Amir Farooq 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Jabir · b Amir Farooq	9	25	0	0	36.00
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjicaught · Imal Liyanage · Mohammed Nadeem 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imal Liyanage · b Mohammed Nadeem	21	27	1	0	77.78
Thinley Jamtshobowled · Amir Farooq 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Amir Farooq	2	4	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Muhammad Jabir0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	2	7.33	2
Amir Farooq1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	3	4.00	1
Mirza Mohammed Baig0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	0	5.50	2
Mohammed Nadeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	1	3.25	0
Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	3	6.00	1
H Rathod0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	0	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	7	14/0
3	13	27/1
4	7	34/2
5	7	41/2
6	2	43/2
7	4	47/2
8	3	50/2
9	2	52/2
10	1	53/2
11	7	60/2
12	2	62/4
13	3	65/4
14	4	69/5
15	10	79/5
16	5	84/5
17	7	91/5
18	8	99/7
19	4	103/8
20	8	111/10

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