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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
14 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Croatia started on 23%; Croatia batted first.
Croatia's chances ranged from 0% to 24% during the match (Germany: 76% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CP Turkichrun out · B Kohler-Cadmore, Muslim Yar · Muslim Yar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · B Kohler-Cadmore, Muslim Yar | 11 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 57.89 |
| D Marsiccaught · V Aritharan · Muslim Yar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · V Aritharan · b Muslim Yar | 13 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 40.63 |
| ZXM Vukusiccaught · Musadiq Ahmed · V Ganesan 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Musadiq Ahmed · b V Ganesan | 25 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 156.25 |
| DJ Turkichstumped · Sachin Mandy · V Ganesan 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sachin Mandy · b V Ganesan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| JM Vujinovichcaught · Harmanjot Singh · Adil Khan 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harmanjot Singh · b Adil Khan | 25 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 92.59 |
| Jaikumar Thakurstumped · Sachin Mandy · V Ganesan 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| stumped · Sachin Mandy · b V Ganesan |
| 4 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| PS Robertsstumped · Sachin Mandy · Adil Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sachin Mandy · b Adil Khan | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Oliver Tilleynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| B Jerkovicnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zahid Zadran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Fayaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Adil Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Muslim Yar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| V Ganesan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Musadiq Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-14 (CP Turkich, 5.5) · 2-40 (D Marsic, 10.0) · 3-41 (DJ Turkich, 10.3) · 4-54 (ZXM Vukusic, 12.2) · 5-71 (Jaikumar Thakur, 16.1) · 6-94 (PS Roberts, 19.1) · 7-95 (JM Vujinovich, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 36/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 40/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 42/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 48/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 56/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 59/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 65/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 71/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 76/5 |
| 18 | 6 | 82/5 |
| 19 | 12 | 94/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 98/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.