KenyaversusUganda

3 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Uganda won by 8 wickets

Kenya20.0 overs107/8 Uganda18.4 overs108/2 Namibia Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

20%Kenya80%Uganda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Kenya (1,592 vs 1,445 on our results rating)
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 6 and Kenya won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kenya started on 18%; Kenya batted first.

Kenya’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Kenya's chances ranged from 0% to 22% during the match (Uganda: 78% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.1: C Aweko to Q Abel, Q Abel out. Uganda up from 82% to 86%.
7.2: I Nakisuuyi to E Wachira, E Wachira out. Uganda up from 79% to 84%.
2nd inns 10.6: MI Khagoitsa to I Nakisuuyi, I Nakisuuyi out. Kenya up from 8% to 13%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kenya107/8 Uganda108/2

Innings 1

Kenya

107/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kenya batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
M Mwangirun out · Kevin Awino, Malisa Ariokot · Concy Aweko 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kevin Awino, Malisa Ariokot	12	12	2	0	100.00
Queentor Abellbw · Concy Aweko 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Concy Aweko	0	1	0	0	0.00
E Wachirabowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi	25	28	4	0	89.29
MI Khagoitsabowled · Concy Aweko 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Concy Aweko	7	15	0	0	46.67
V Abugarun out · NJ Amongin, Kevin Awino · S Akiteng 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · NJ Amongin, Kevin Awino	3	9	0	0	33.33
V Ooko

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Irene Mutonyi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	0	6.00	0	0
Concy Aweko1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	2	3.00	0	0
Janet Mbabazi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	26	0	8.67	0	0
Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	1	6.50	0	0
S Akiteng1 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	1	13	0	3.25	2	1
Stephanie Nampiina0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	7	0	7.00	0	0
Malisa Ariokot0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	1	1	1.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	6	8/1
3	10	18/1
4	2	20/2
5	9	29/2
6	8	37/2
7	2	39/2
8	3	42/3
9	0	42/4
10	7	49/4
11	5	54/4
12	0	54/5
13	8	62/5
14	1	63/5
15	6	69/6
16	14	83/6
17	9	92/6
18	4	96/6
19	6	102/6
20	5	107/8

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