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South Africa tour of West Indies · 2024 · Men
23 May 2024 · T20
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 58%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 42%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · HE van der Dussen · Andile Phehlukwayo 6 fours · 6 sixes | caught · HE van der Dussen · b Andile Phehlukwayo | 79 | 45 | 6 | 6 | 175.56 |
| Johnson Charlescaught · Ryan Rickelton · Ottniel Baartman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Ottniel Baartman | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Kyle Mayerscaught · Reeza Hendricks · Gerald Coetzee1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Reeza Hendricks · b Gerald Coetzee | 34 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 136.00 |
 Roston Chasenot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 32* | 30 | 2 | 1 | 106.67 |
| bowled · b Andile Phehlukwayo |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Fabian Allenlbw · Andile Phehlukwayo 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Andile Phehlukwayo | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseinbowled · Ottniel Baartman 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ottniel Baartman | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordecaught · Andile Phehlukwayo · Ottniel Baartman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andile Phehlukwayo · b Ottniel Baartman | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motierun out · Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 10.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Andile Phehlukwayo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Reeza Hendricks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-36 (Johnson Charles, 3.4) · 2-115 (Brandon King, 11.0) · 3-134 (Kyle Mayers, 13.3) · 4-135 (Andre Fletcher, 14.1) · 5-137 (Fabian Allen, 14.4) · 6-151 (Akeal Hosein, 16.1) · 7-165 (Matthew Forde, 19.0) · 8-174 (Gudakesh Motie, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 17 | 34/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 53/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 64/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 73/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 82/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 93/1 |
| 10 | 16 | 109/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 115/2 |
| 12 | 12 | 127/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 132/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 135/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 143/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 151/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 155/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 160/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 165/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 175/8 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Mayers: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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