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Photo: CAPTAIN RAJU
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Australia tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
17 Jun 2026 · T20
Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 34%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Australia: 52% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassancaught · Mitchell Marsh · Matt Renshaw 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Matt Renshaw | 20 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 142.86 |
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Xavier Bartlett · Spencer Johnson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Spencer Johnson | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Nikhil Chaudhary · Adam Zampa1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nikhil Chaudhary · b Adam Zampa | 17 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 94.44 |
 Tawhid Hridoybowled · Adam Zampa0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 160.00 |
| caught · Cooper Connolly · b Joel Davies |
| 10 |
| 12 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 83.33 |
| Abdul Gaffar Saqlaincaught · Nikhil Chaudhary · Joel Davies 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nikhil Chaudhary · b Joel Davies | 10 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Shamim Hossaincaught · Josh Inglis · Matt Renshaw0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Matt Renshaw | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Mahedi Hasannot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 29* | 22 | 4 | 0 | 131.82 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Xavier Bartlett · Nikhil Chaudhary0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Nikhil Chaudhary | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Shariful Islamcaught · Tim David · Adam Zampa0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tim David · b Adam Zampa | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmanlbw · Joel Davies0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Joel Davies | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Joel Davies0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Nikhil Chaudhary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Tanzid Hasan, 2.5) · 2-39 (Saif Hassan, 4.5) · 3-57 (Tawhid Hridoy, 7.0) · 4-64 (Soumya Sarkar, 8.2) · 5-75 (Parvez Hossain Emon, 10.2) · 6-78 (Shamim Hossain, 11.2) · 7-86 (Abdul Gaffar Saqlain, 12.3) · 8-99 (Rishad Hossain, 15.3) · 9-108 (Shariful Islam, 17.0) · 10-131 (Mustafizur Rahman, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 27/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 45/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 52/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 57/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 63/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 68/4 |
| 10 | 7 | 75/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 77/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 85/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 86/7 |
| 14 | 3 | 89/7 |
| 15 | 5 | 94/7 |
| 16 | 11 | 105/8 |
| 17 | 3 | 108/9 |
| 18 | 9 | 117/9 |
| 19 | 14 | 131/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamim Hossain: DelwarHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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