AustraliaversusWest Indies

21 Mar 2026 · T20

Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 17 runs

Australia20.0 overs164/5 West Indies20.0 overs147/4 Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

82%Australia18%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than West Indies (1,719 vs 1,503 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and West Indies won 2
West Indies are playing at home in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 82%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 36%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.5: D Brown to HK Matthews, six by HK Matthews. West Indies up from 16% to 22%.
2nd inns 12.1: A King to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. Australia up from 64% to 76%.
2nd inns 14.5: A King to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Australia up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia164/5 West Indies147/4

Innings 1

Australia

164/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Georgia Vollcaught · Jannillea Glasgow · Karishma Ramharack 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jannillea Glasgow · b Karishma Ramharack	39	23	6	1	169.57
Beth Mooneybowled · Afy Fletcher 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Afy Fletcher	17	20	2	0	85.00
Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Hayley Matthews 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Hayley Matthews	35	29	3	0	120.69
Ellyse Perry

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	2
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50	1
Jahzara Claxton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	1	10.50	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	1
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	10	21/0
3	9	30/0
4	3	33/0
5	8	41/0
6	13	54/1
7	5	59/1
8	12	71/1
9	7	78/2
10	8	86/2
11	8	94/2
12	6	100/2
13	4	104/2
14	9	113/2
15	12	125/2
16	7	132/3
17	12	144/3
18	6	150/4
19	4	154/5
20	10	164/5

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