Lahore QalandarsversusKarachi Kings

24 Feb 2024 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Karachi Kings won by 2 wickets

Lahore Qalandars20.0 overs175/6 Karachi Kings20.0 overs176/8 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lahore Qalandars started on 59%; Lahore Qalandars batted first.

Lahore Qalandars’s chance of winning (%) · Karachi Kings is the rest

Lahore Qalandars's chances ranged from 9% to 90% during the match (Karachi Kings: 10% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.2: Zaman Khan to DR Sams, DR Sams out. Lahore Qalandars up from 27% to 52%.
2nd inns 19.1: Ahsan Hafeez to Hasan Ali, six by Hasan Ali. Karachi Kings up from 42% to 84%.
2nd inns 19.6: Ahsan Hafeez to Mir Hamza, 1 run to Mir Hamza. Karachi Kings up from 79% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lahore Qalandars175/6 Karachi Kings176/8

Innings 1