NetherlandsversusBangladesh

31 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 8 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs162/5 Bangladesh20.0 overs154/8 Grange Cricket Club Ground, Raeburn Place, Edinburgh ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

63%Netherlands37%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,681 vs 1,536 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 2 and Netherlands won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 58%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 56% to 95% during the match (Bangladesh: 5% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: IJR Zwilling to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Netherlands up from 69% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.1: S Siegers to Sharmin Akhter, Sharmin Akhter out. Netherlands up from 79% to 87%.
2nd inns 16.2: S Siegers to Shorna Akter, Shorna Akter out. Netherlands up from 76% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands162/5 Bangladesh154/8

Innings 1

Netherlands

162/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Heather Siegerscaught and bowled · Fariha Trisna 7 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Fariha Trisna	52	43	7	0	120.93
P Molkenboercaught · Dilara Akter · Rabeya Khan 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dilara Akter · b Rabeya Khan	29	24	5	0	120.83
Sterre Kalislbw · Fariha Trisna 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Fariha Trisna	28	27	4	0	103.70
Babette de Leedebowled · Marufa Akter 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Marufa Akter	16	7	3	0	228.57
Robine Rijkenot out 2 fours · 0 sixes	not out	18*	10	2	0	180.00
S Khurana

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marufa Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	1	9.33	0
Fariha Trisna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	0
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0
Ritu Moni0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	5
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0
Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	6	11/0
3	12	23/0
4	4	27/0
5	7	34/0
6	9	43/0
7	7	50/0
8	7	57/0
9	4	61/1
10	10	71/1
11	5	76/1
12	8	84/1
13	9	93/1
14	11	104/1
15	6	110/1
16	7	117/3
17	10	127/3
18	15	142/4
19	7	149/4
20	13	162/5

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