MyanmarversusSingapore

9 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Singapore won by 8 wickets

Myanmar17.5 overs45/10 Singapore4.4 overs47/2 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Singapore more likely to win

26%Myanmar74%Singapore

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Singapore rate stronger than Myanmar (1,417 vs 1,281 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Singapore won 1 and Myanmar won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Myanmar started on 24%; Myanmar batted first.

Myanmar’s chance of winning (%) · Singapore is the rest

Myanmar's chances ranged from 0% to 26% during the match (Singapore: 74% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: R Kalimuthu to KK Lin Thu, KK Lin Thu out. Singapore up from 76% to 81%.
7.1: H Bharadwaj to Pyae Phyo Wai, Pyae Phyo Wai out. Singapore up from 82% to 85%.
9.4: H Bharadwaj to Khin Aye, Khin Aye out. Singapore up from 92% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Myanmar45/10 Singapore47/2

Innings 1

Myanmar

45/1017.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Myanmar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ko Ko Lin Thulbw · R Kalimuthu 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b R Kalimuthu	3	9	0	0	33.33
Pyae Phyo Waicaught · Raoul Sharma · H Bharadwaj 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Raoul Sharma · b H Bharadwaj	8	21	0	0	38.10
Htet Lin Aungcaught · R Kalimuthu · Aryaveer Chaudhary 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · R Kalimuthu · b Aryaveer Chaudhary	11	15	1	0	73.33
Khin Ayebowled · H Bharadwaj 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b H Bharadwaj	0	6	0	0	0.00
Paing Danucaught · Raoul Sharma · Aryaveer Chaudhary 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Raoul Sharma · b Aryaveer Chaudhary	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
H Bharadwaj2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	8	4	2.00	1	0
Akshay Puri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	0	2.25	1	0
R Kalimuthu0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	12	2	3.00	1	1
Aryaveer Chaudhary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	2	2.25	0	0
R Sheshadri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0	0
Amartya Kaul0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.5	0	1	1	1.20	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	2	7/0
3	2	9/1
4	2	11/1
5	3	14/1
6	4	18/1
7	6	24/1
8	0	24/2
9	1	25/4
10	3	28/6
11	1	29/6
12	0	29/7
13	1	30/8
14	1	31/9
15	1	32/9
16	6	38/9
17	6	44/9
18	1	45/10

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