BangladeshversusPakistan

20 Jun 2026 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 23 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs123/6 Pakistan20.0 overs100/8 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

66%Bangladesh34%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,602 vs 1,468 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 65%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 10% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.5: Sanjida Akter Meghla to Aliya Riaz, Aliya Riaz out. Bangladesh up from 24% to 36%.
2nd inns 14.2: Rabeya Khan to Iram Javed, Iram Javed out. Bangladesh up from 42% to 60%.
2nd inns 15.3: Sanjida Akter Meghla to Saira Jabeen, Saira Jabeen out. Bangladesh up from 75% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh123/6 Pakistan100/8

Innings 1

Bangladesh

123/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Nashra Sandhu · Fatima Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Fatima Sana	5	7	1	0	71.43
Juairiya Ferdouscaught · Nashra Sandhu · Tasmia Rubab 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Tasmia Rubab	7	11	0	0	63.64
Sharmin Akhterlbw · Fatima Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Fatima Sana	0	3	0	0	0.00
Nigar Sultanacaught · Saira Jabeen · Sadia Iqbal 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saira Jabeen · b Sadia Iqbal	36	38	5	0	94.74

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	1	5.25	0
Fatima Sana1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	18	2	4.50	0
Tasmia Rubab0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	40	1	10.00	1
Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	1	3.50	1
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	1	7.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	0	5/2
3	4	9/2
4	2	11/2
5	5	16/3
6	7	23/3
7	10	33/3
8	6	39/3
9	8	47/3
10	1	48/4
11	5	53/4
12	3	56/4
13	12	68/4
14	4	72/4
15	5	77/5
16	3	80/5
17	11	91/5
18	9	100/6
19	14	114/6
20	9	123/6

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