New ZealandversusWest Indies

13 Jun 2026 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 7 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs162/6 West Indies19.5 overs163/3 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

77%New Zealand23%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than West Indies (1,633 vs 1,530 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 9 and West Indies won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 76%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 2% to 88% during the match (West Indies: 12% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.5: JM Kerr to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. New Zealand up from 54% to 66%.
2nd inns 13.6: AC Kerr to SA Campbelle, six by SA Campbelle. West Indies up from 43% to 63%.
2nd inns 17.2: AC Kerr to SA Campbelle, six by SA Campbelle. West Indies up from 76% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand162/6 West Indies163/3

Innings 1

New Zealand

162/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Izzy Gazecaught · Karishma Ramharack · Aaliyah Alleyne 8 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Aaliyah Alleyne	39	29	8	134.48
Georgia Plimmercaught · Deandra Dottin · Aaliyah Alleyne 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Deandra Dottin · b Aaliyah Alleyne	8	11	1	72.73
Amelia Kerrcaught · Karishma Ramharack · Aaliyah Alleyne 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Aaliyah Alleyne	5	6	1	83.33
Sophie Devinecaught · Jahzara Claxton · Hayley Matthews 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jahzara Claxton · b Hayley Matthews	22	15	3	146.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Zaida James0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	1	0
Shawnisha Hector0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0	0
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	22	1	11.00	0	1
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	4	6.75	2	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	0	6.50	2	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	0	8.33	0	0
Qiana Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	9	18/0
3	5	23/0
4	11	34/0
5	12	46/0
6	3	49/1
7	2	51/1
8	5	56/3
9	9	65/3
10	8	73/3
11	12	85/3
12	13	98/3
13	6	104/4
14	4	108/4
15	2	110/4
16	11	121/4
17	8	129/4
18	11	140/5
19	11	151/5
20	11	162/6

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