Central DistrictsversusOtago

31 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Otago won by 1 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs89/9 Otago19.5 overs92/9 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 45%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 8% to 67% during the match (Otago: 33% to 92%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.4: RA Mair to HNK Jensen, HNK Jensen out. Central Districts up from 28% to 55%.
2nd inns 18.2: OJS Bartlett to EJ Carson, four by EJ Carson. Otago up from 59% to 81%.
2nd inns 19.5: FDM Devonshire to KL Gordon, four by KL Gordon. Otago up from 66% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts89/9 Otago92/9

Innings 1