Central DistrictsversusCanterbury

3 Jan 2026 · T20

Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 7 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs191/5 Canterbury20.0 overs184/8 Saxton Oval, Nelson ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 46%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 39% to 97% during the match (Canterbury: 4% to 61%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.4: FDM Devonshire to IG Sharp, IG Sharp out. Central Districts up from 39% to 56%.
2nd inns 17.6: Ashtuti Kumar to LMM Tahuhu, four by LMM Tahuhu. Canterbury up from 20% to 41%.
2nd inns 18.2: HM Rowe to KM Chandler, KM Chandler out. Central Districts up from 57% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts191/5 Canterbury184/8

Innings 1