**County Ground, Bristol**
Photo: Barry Dogger
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

GloucestershireversusHampshire

7 Jun 2024 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hampshire won by 5 wickets

Gloucestershire18.2 overs124/10 Hampshire16.5 overs128/5 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 42%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Hampshire is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Hampshire: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: CP Wood to Miles Hammond, Miles Hammond out. Hampshire up from 59% to 70%.
3.2: CP Wood to James Bracey, James Bracey out. Hampshire up from 68% to 78%.
2nd inns 4.3: DA Payne to NRT Gubbins, NRT Gubbins out. Gloucestershire up from 12% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire124/10 Hampshire128/5

Innings 1