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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
23 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Austria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Croatia started on 20%; Croatia batted first.
Croatia's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (Austria: 55% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Houghtoncaught · Amar Naeem · Aqib Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amar Naeem · b Aqib Iqbal | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| CM Carrollcaught · Umair Tariq · Aqib Iqbal 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Umair Tariq · b Aqib Iqbal | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Rashid Hashmicaught · Zeshan Arif · Bilal Zalmai 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Zeshan Arif · b Bilal Zalmai | 28 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 121.74 |
| JR Newtoncaught · Irfan Safi · Umair Tariq 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Irfan Safi · b Umair Tariq | 50 | 46 | 3 | 1 | 108.70 |
| Oliver Tilleyrun out · Amar Naeem, Aqib Iqbal · H Khogiyani 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amar Naeem, Aqib Iqbal | 22 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 68.75 |
| caught · Irfan Safi · b H Khogiyani |
| 30 |
| 10 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 300.00 |
| N Davidovicnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| DJ Hallnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aqib Iqbal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Baseer Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| H Khogiyani0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Bilal Zalmai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Irfan Safi0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 6 | 1 |
| Umair Tariq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (S Houghton, 0.4) · 2-12 (CM Carroll, 2.2) · 3-81 (Rashid Hashmi, 10.1) · 4-121 (JR Newton, 16.3) · 5-157 (Saghar Manzoor, 19.2) · 6-159 (Oliver Tilley, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 8 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/2 |
| 4 | 13 | 26/2 |
| 5 | 12 | 38/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 47/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 55/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 64/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 74/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 81/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 12 | 17 | 100/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 106/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 109/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 114/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 120/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 123/4 |
| 18 | 15 | 138/4 |
| 19 | 18 | 156/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 160/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.