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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
13 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Oman more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 42%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arjun Kumallbw · Shakeel Ahmed 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shakeel Ahmed | 40 | 59 | 4 | 0 | 67.80 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Jay Odedra · Shah Faisal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jay Odedra · b Shah Faisal | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 26.67 |
| Ishan Pandeybowled · K Sonavale 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Sonavale | 37 | 55 | 4 | 0 | 67.27 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Vinayak Shukla · Shakeel Ahmed3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Shakeel Ahmed | 61 | 67 | 3 | 1 | 91.04 |
| Basir Ahamadcaught · Vinayak Shukla · K Sonavale 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b K Sonavale | 37 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 62%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 50 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 74.00 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Vinayak Shukla · Shah Faisal0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Shah Faisal | 22 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 129.41 |
|---|
| Sundeep Joracaught · Vinayak Shukla · Hassnain Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Hassnain Shah | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Karan KCrun out · Vinayak Shukla · Shah Faisal1 fours · 4 sixes | run out · Vinayak Shukla | 40 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shah Faisal0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 4.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
| K Sonavale0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 4.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassnain Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 75 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mujibur Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Aasif Sheikh, 6.1) · 2-81 (Ishan Pandey, 20.4) · 3-83 (Arjun Kumal, 21.5) · 4-169 (Basir Ahamad, 39.1) · 5-191 (Rohit Kumar, 42.3) · 6-213 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 45.3) · 7-216 (Sundeep Jora, 46.1) · 8-263 (Karan KC, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 17/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 45/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 51/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 52/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 56/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 60/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 18 | 7 | 71/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 76/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 81/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 88/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 89/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 91/3 |
| 27 | 9 | 100/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 103/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 107/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 110/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 114/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 121/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 126/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 129/3 |
| 35 | 7 | 136/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 140/3 |
| 37 | 10 | 150/3 |
| 38 | 9 | 159/3 |
| 39 | 10 | 169/3 |
| 40 | 2 | 171/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 177/4 |
| 42 | 9 | 186/4 |
| 43 | 10 | 196/5 |
| 44 | 9 | 205/5 |
| 45 | 7 | 212/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 216/6 |
| 47 | 7 | 223/7 |
| 48 | 4 | 227/7 |
| 49 | 25 | 252/7 |
| 50 | 11 | 263/8 |
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
