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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
13 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 74%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 12% to 95% during the match (Qatar: 5% to 88%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Imal Liyanage · Mirza Mohammed Baig1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imal Liyanage · b Mirza Mohammed Baig | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Imal Liyanage · Mirza Mohammed Baig 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imal Liyanage · b Mirza Mohammed Baig | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 91.67 |
 Rohit Kumarbowled · Daniel Louis7 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Louis | 58 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 138.10 |
 Kushal Mallacaught and bowled · Owais Ahmed0 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Owais Ahmed | 8 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 80.00 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Zubair Ali · Daniel Louis1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zubair Ali · b Daniel Louis | 26 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 118.18 |
|---|
 Mohammad Aadil Alamcaught and bowled · Daniel Louis0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Daniel Louis | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhabowled · Mirza Mohammed Baig0 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Mirza Mohammed Baig | 16 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Sundeep Jorabowled · Muhammad Asim 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Asim | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamirun out · Imal Liyanage, Mirza Mohammed Baig · Muhammad Asim0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Imal Liyanage, Mirza Mohammed Baig | 14 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 155.56 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirza Mohammed Baig0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Amir Farooq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Asim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Mujeeb Ur Rehman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Owais Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Louis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 7.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-14 (Kushal Bhurtel, 2.4) · 2-25 (Aasif Sheikh, 4.1) · 3-48 (Kushal Malla, 7.4) · 4-110 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 15.0) · 5-114 (Mohammad Aadil Alam, 16.2) · 6-115 (Rohit Kumar, 16.4) · 7-116 (Sundeep Jora, 17.1) · 8-134 (Gulsan Jha, 18.4) · 9-147 (Sompal Kami, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 31/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 12 | 45/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 49/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 56/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 11 | 12 | 72/3 |
| 12 | 11 | 83/3 |
| 13 | 14 | 97/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 102/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 110/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 114/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 116/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 120/7 |
| 19 | 16 | 136/8 |
| 20 | 11 | 147/9 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Aadil Alam: Madhesh Province Cricket · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
