BahrainversusMalaysia

13 Mar 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 35 runs

Bahrain20.0 overs126/9 Malaysia18.4 overs91/9 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

70%Bahrain30%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Malaysia (1,600 vs 1,459 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 4 and Malaysia won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 67%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

5.5: S Vijay Unni to Ahmer Bin Nisar, Ahmer Bin Nisar out. Malaysia up from 43% to 55%.
2nd inns 4.5: Imran Khan to Syed Aziz, Syed Aziz out. Bahrain up from 57% to 68%.
2nd inns 5.1: Imran Anwar to Ahmed Faiz, Ahmed Faiz out. Bahrain up from 69% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain126/9 Malaysia91/9

Innings 1

Bahrain

126/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Fiaz Ahmedrun out · Ainool Hafizs, Muhammad Amir · Vijay Unni 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Ainool Hafizs, Muhammad Amir	14	19	1	0	73.68
P Kurupbowled · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Pavandeep Singh	0	1	0	0	0.00
Asif Alicaught · Vijay Unni · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Vijay Unni · b Pavandeep Singh	0	4	0	0	0.00
Sohail Ahmedbowled · Muhammad Wafiq 1 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Muhammad Wafiq	54	46	1	3	117.39
Ahmer Bin Nasircaught · Sharvin Muniandy · Vijay Unni 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sharvin Muniandy · b Vijay Unni	6	4	1	0	150.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Pavandeep Singh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	4
Syed Aziz1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	26	3	6.50	1
Vijay Unni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33	0
Muhammad Wafiq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	1	6.33	0
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	0	5.00	0
Khizar Hayat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	22	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	0	4/1
3	8	12/2
4	8	20/2
5	5	25/2
6	7	32/4
7	4	36/4
8	2	38/4
9	5	43/4
10	7	50/4
11	6	56/4
12	1	57/4
13	6	63/4
14	3	66/4
15	16	82/4
16	12	94/4
17	14	108/4
18	4	112/4
19	10	122/5
20	4	126/9

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