Northern DistrictsversusCanterbury

19 Jan 2025 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Canterbury won by 4 wickets

Northern Districts20.0 overs138/5 Canterbury19.3 overs141/6 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 55%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 1% to 65% during the match (Canterbury: 35% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.1: MW Downes to J Dean, J Dean out. Northern Districts up from 40% to 51%.
2nd inns 8.3: A Wellington to KG Anderson, KG Anderson out. Northern Districts up from 48% to 59%.
2nd inns 15.6: NH Patel to M Penna, six by M Penna. Canterbury up from 74% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts138/5 Canterbury141/6

Innings 1