Northern DistrictsversusAuckland

20 Jan 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 39 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs145/9 Auckland19.2 overs106/10 Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 42%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Auckland: 0% to 67%).

Biggest swings

0.5: MM Penfold to JM Watkin, JM Watkin out. Auckland up from 52% to 61%.
2nd inns 1.3: MW Downes to S Shahri, S Shahri out. Northern Districts up from 64% to 73%.
2nd inns 3.2: MW Downes to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. Northern Districts up from 72% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts145/9 Auckland106/10

Innings 1